Stagflation & Misery Index Calculator

Adjust the sliders to model economic conditions and see where the U.S. stands on the stagflation spectrum — from healthy growth to full stagflation.

Economic Conditions

Inflation rate (%)2.4%

Unemployment rate (%)4.3%

GDP growth rate (%)1.8%

Misery Index

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inflation + unemployment

Economic Condition

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Fed Policy Signal

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Misery Index — Historical Comparison

Your scenario Historical benchmarks

Historical Episodes vs. Today

1970s Oil Shock

Inflation peak13.5%

Unemployment9.0%

Misery Index~22

GDP growth-0.5%

2022 Post-COVID

Inflation peak9.1%

Unemployment3.6%

Misery Index~12.7

GDP growth2.1%

2026 — Your Inputs

Inflation2.4%

Unemployment4.3%

Misery Index6.7

GDP growth1.8%

The Misery Index = inflation rate + unemployment rate, invented by economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s. Current U.S. readings (Feb 2026): CPI 2.4%, unemployment 4.3%, Misery Index ~6.7. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 18, 2026 meeting. Try the Iran war scenario: set inflation to 3.5% and unemployment to 4.8% to see the "stagflation lite" projection. This calculator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.